Trump’s lead over Biden narrows after conviction, analysis shows | US elections 2024

After the Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felonies last week, Republicans have rallied around the former president, insisting the conviction will only hurt Joe Biden’s standing in the presidential election.

But some new polling data cast doubt on that argument, as a small but crucial number of Americans in key voting blocs appear to be turning to Biden after the verdict.

According to a post-conviction analysis of nearly 2,000 interviews with voters who previously participated in New York Times/Siena College polls, Trump’s lead over the president has narrowed from three points to one point. This change may seem minor, but it could prove crucial in a close presidential election, as is expected in this year’s race. In 2020only 44,000 votes in three battleground states prevented an Electoral College tie.

Perhaps more troubling for Trump are the specific areas where he appears to be losing support. Unaffiliated Democratic-leaning voters and those who dislike Trump and Biden are more likely to say the verdict has caused them to reconsider their options in the election, according to the Times analysis.

Both voting groups have played a significant role in boosting Trump’s poll results in recent months. Among those who voted for Biden in 2020 and previously indicated they would support Trump this year, roughly a quarter said they would now support the incumbent. Voters who dislike both candidates, so-called “double-haters,” are seen as particularly influential this year, and a Times analysis showed Trump lost more than a fifth of his pre-conviction support among those voters.

Polling data collected since Trump’s conviction is still somewhat limited, but at least one other post-conviction survey confirmed the Times’ findings. Republican firm Echelon Insights conducted research showing Biden with a two-point lead over Trump among recontact voters, while responses from those same respondents showed a tie between the two candidates before the jury reached its verdict.

But other warning signs remain for Biden, particularly in battleground states that he will need to win to secure re-election. A Quinnipiac University Poll voters in Georgia, which Biden won by 0.2 points in 2020, showed Trump with a five-point lead in a head-to-head matchup against the incumbent, though that result was within the poll’s margin of error. When other candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy, were added to the list of options, Trump’s lead grew to six points, which was outside the margin of error.

While the poll showed Biden trailing in Georgia, the survey also found that 50 percent of voters in the battleground state approved of the verdict in the Manhattan case, underscoring the mixed feelings sparked by Trump’s conviction.

A The Times Opinion Focus Group of 11 undecided voters conducted hours after the verdict was announced last week reflected a range of opinions on the outcome of the case, with some participants saying they were increasingly leaning toward Kennedy. At least one person said the conviction made him less likely to vote for Biden, saying Trump’s conviction made Biden look “out of favor.” Another voter said Biden had “dirty hands in this,” an apparent reference to Trump’s baseless claims of political persecution.

“I guess I thought Joe Biden it was above that,” said John, a 58-year-old white customer relations worker from Pennsylvania.

Still, other focus group participants indicated that the verdict had changed their opinion of Trump for the worse, echoing the findings of the Times analysis. One voter named Ben, a 42-year-old white college counselor from Texas, suggested he was leaning toward Biden because Trump’s conviction proved his incompetence.

“What’s the big deal about bribing Stormy Daniels? But I want a president who will be able to cover up a $130,000 bribe to Daniels,” Ben said. “If he can’t do it, I won’t entrust him with nuclear football. This seems so easy for him to screw up. I’m kind of leaning toward Biden now.”

With five months to go until Election Day, voters still have time to consider — and reconsider — their thoughts on Trump’s sentence.